Wednesday, April 14, 2010
The decoupling of Wall street and main street
Wall street is moving on and leaving MAIN Street behind.
RECOVERY - Atlantic
Alphabet Soup V, U, W, L, X
X=EP
There can be no (sustainable, organic) recovery until we find an entirely new model for economic growth. what we have now is not an organic growth model.....
X=EP
There can be no (sustainable, organic) recovery until we find an entirely new model for economic growth. what we have now is not an organic growth model.....
Monday, April 12, 2010
Don't build another wall street straw House to retire in...
... The rational was made out of straw.....Use bricks this time....The world is modular...
Don't rebuild before you retool first....
The process needs to be revisited......
ALL INFORMATION is not in the markets
Think about first jersey IPO What they Want you to know information is valuable ..."if I would have known that i would not have done that...!!!...information is biased ....decisions are made on perception and emotion as well as reason....the rational man is a MYTH....so is the wizard of OZ and the tooth fairy.
Companies tell analysts what they want them to hear and analysts present the story they want to tell. does that perception represent true Value...What is not being included.the bull bias or the bear bias three sides to every story you need all the facts and it often takes detective work.
Companies tell analysts what they want them to hear and analysts present the story they want to tell. does that perception represent true Value...What is not being included.the bull bias or the bear bias three sides to every story you need all the facts and it often takes detective work.
free markets are a reflection of life itself (reflexivity) and life is not linear nor is it purely rational.
It is full of biases, it is chaotic, complex and fractal and evolutionary in nature.Look around, what do you see...
It is full of biases, it is chaotic, complex and fractal and evolutionary in nature.Look around, what do you see...
Economics or the economy is the social fabric of the system of society look at what they did
it accelerated a trend that was already it place the atlantic....gave the market a way to pay for goods that jobs, incomes and productive activity no longer could support.
The OPPORTUNITY: Nothing has changed but change itself
It lives to promulgate its own exietence at the expence of not for the system it believes it is the system
I did not create MAIN & WALL to distribute the financial products of wall street to the private investor...I set it up to help navigate this EP.....
that requires a new structure.....To do so we created the modular world, ampm, amfm, ws$ms, mwtv, and mwu...to bring it to you you.
that requires a new structure.....To do so we created the modular world, ampm, amfm, ws$ms, mwtv, and mwu...to bring it to you you.
Bring you a world you can't see
Frame your world and sell you theirs is backward...
Show you a world they don't want you to see....
Still working in silos........
Show you a world they don't want you to see....
Still working in silos........
Robert Riech and X
X=EP=F
F=X
X=EP
F=EP
You can define the future but you can't predict it
100 years.....it is a complex system and has a life of it's own like kids and basketball.... extropolate it it but it its always something different like the market
F=X
X=EP
F=EP
You can define the future but you can't predict it
100 years.....it is a complex system and has a life of it's own like kids and basketball.... extropolate it it but it its always something different like the market
Saturday, April 10, 2010
The Science of Complexity, of order out of Chaos
The Science of the 21st Century
We believe This is better defined as an Evolutionary Phase
....the science of Chaos will better explain it....
Bifurcation Theory
Time is irreversable - the fork in the road
human systems
chemical clocks
The science of Chaos
Non-Linear systems
Self organizing systems,
Evolving Systems
Complex Systems
emergent computation - non-linear systems take quantum leaps
Cellular Automata
non-linear systems must be studied as a whole......
human systems
chemical clocks
The science of Chaos
Non-Linear systems
Self organizing systems,
Evolving Systems
Complex Systems
emergent computation - non-linear systems take quantum leaps
Cellular Automata
non-linear systems must be studied as a whole......
shinking Detroit.....
"All this has prompyed two overdue epiphanies. First Detroit needs to plant the seeds of a new economy. Second, the city can no longer afford itself. In place of the old must come a new, leaner city.
Export or Die
With Demand at Rock Bottom, American firms are Looking abroad.
Time to rebalance
America's economy is set to shift away from comsumption and debt and toward exports and saving. It will be its biggest transformation in decades, says Greg Ip.......The Economist Magazine..04/03/2010
If you got the big Picture Wrong...the long term won't bail you out...
ie Bull market investing in A secular Bear...The convential wisdom is usually wrong....As that is what is always priced in....
Successful Investing requires a notion of the Future
Scenario Investing......
Asking Questions....What will be the effect of rising interest rates on the Economy?
Asking Questions....What will be the effect of rising interest rates on the Economy?
You Compete, You Adapt, You Evolve or You Die
This is not a cyclical downturn/recovery...This is an Evolutionary Phase...Evolution is Modular....Get Modular or get Left behind...
evolution, complexity and chaos theory
The World is more complex
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